'ROUND THE CORNER

Past is not prologue. Prescience is a myth. That does not mean that one can not use the past to 'look' into the future. A cautious use of past events coupled with a judicious building of possible future scenarios can lead to reasonable predictions. Those reasonable predictions can return spectacular results.

I call this process "looking 'round the corner."

It is something that all successful people do with better than average accuracy. It applies to writing, as well as to the stock market, to modern technologies and myriads of other areas of human endeavor. Inventions are good examples from the technology sphere. Every modern convenience offers support for this notion: The telegraph, the telephone, wireless communications, TVs, microwave ovens, all were things the public "didn't need" until they were invented, manufactured and became indispensable.

Writers who "look 'round the corner into the future" are better able to write that which will be read. In many cases, these prescient writers "create" the future by writing that which readers have been hungering for, even though those readers were not able to articulate their hunger. Poe, Wilkie Collins and mystery writing come to mind. Jules Verne, H.G. Wells and science fiction is another case in point. James Joyce and Virginia Wolff provide evidence that may be difficult to argue away.

It is not for me to say what the "next" prescient writer will choose for her or his style, or what that person will write about. If I knew the answer to that conundrum (and had the talent to write in that way or in that genre), I would get "write" to work. So far, I don't have a glimmer.

I have never been one to look 'round the corner in any effective way. For example, I started using computers for word processing in 1981. By 1984(!), it was obvious to me that computers would revolutionize the world of work, and that of writing, too. For the first time in my adult life, I could actually type and produce nearly perfect copy. Electronic correction-for a person who types as inaccurately as I did, and still do-was a marvel to behold. I could act as my own secretary and editor!

It seemed evident that computer stocks-both those in the computer hardware manufacturing area and those in the software arenas-would be excellent investments, even when done on a scale within my modest means.

Did I pursue the certainty of my convictions and invest? I did not! Apple computer's stock was a modest $12 a share at the time I was thinking about investing. Buying one thousand shares was well within my means. I dallied and delayed. The stock increased many times over in value. It split and went up again. Twelve dollars became far, far more than that.

Microsoft was a couple of dollars a share, still, when a little prescient thought would have strongly suggested that it was a "pearl beyond price," at that price. Recently, it has been $87. (It has been much higher than that.) At the time that it was two dollars a share, I had twenty thousand dollars that "fairly cried" to be effectively invested. The money went into a bond account and earned barely five percent for many years. What folly. Dell, Intel, Cisco Systems and others have done nearly as well or better over the short-term.

In 1996, Yahoo! was around two dollars a share; so was amazon.com! Yahoo! was at $165 a share recently, and had been higher; amazon.com was over $68 a share, and had been higher. We're talking three years and two years, respectively! For me, it was obvious that Yahoo! was providing a great service to those using the Internet. I could see that it was a solid company with a great future. Did I invest? No. I stuck to my stodgy old bonds and, finally, took a mild plunge into some mutual funds.

You are absolutely right: "woulda, coulda, shoulda" is a game for losers to play. I am merely pointing out what 'round the corner investing offers; 'round the corner writing offers the same magnitudes of reward, but in writing, the investment is in time, effort , talent and creativity, not bucks, directly.

Peer 'round the corner, my friends, whether it be for investment, invention or innovation in writing style or genre. The rewards of using past as prologue and of using prescience for building scenarios and bringing them into being await you, and handsome rewards they MAY be.