December 23, 2002

ONLY TWENTY-SIX TERRORISTS

In his brilliant, tortured life, Edgar Allen Poe created some highly imaginative literature. Among his works is the "Mask of the Red Death." This macabre story deals with a highly infectious, easily transmitted disease. This deadly plague threatens an entire country.

Prince Prospero, the "hero" of the piece, erects a sanctum sanctorum - a safe haven - somewhere "out in the boonies." The Prince and his coterie flee to the safe haven, convinced that they have left the deadly plague behind. However, a specter appears at one of the Prince's gala debaucheries. All in the haven are infected and die.

A modern day plague could ravage the entire world, not just one country. Today, each of us is linked, by modern air travel, to every corner of the globe. Within a few hours, commercial (as well as military and other governmental aircraft) jetliners can circle the Earth. Beyond the international network of airports, a system of highways and roads (or rivers used as highways) link even very remote areas. There are few, if any, natural sanctum sanctorums. That is what makes the prospect of a modern day plague so sobering.

The globalization of direct, person-to-person, interaction provides a perfect way for plagues to be spread around the world. Both the systems for and the methods of delivering and of spreading a plague are in place. All that is required is the dedication of a few persons intent on the destruction of a significant percentage of the Earth's population.

In the United States, there are 26 Major Metropolitan Areas (MMAs), as designated by the United States Census Bureau. While most of us can't name all 26 of them, most of us could name a few of the most famous (or notorious): New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, Atlanta, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco, Baltimore, Miami and Detroit to name just a few of the 26.

Each of these cities is a hub for uncounted numbers of suburbs. Beyond the suburbs are the rural areas. Cities, suburbs and rural areas are distinguishable mostly in terms of location and population densities. All are intricately and inexorably tied together on a daily basis.

If we can believe President George W. Bush and other member of his administration, there are "axis of evil" governments or terrorist organizations who either presently have or may soon have access to one or more highly infectious, easily transmitted diseases. If that is so, and if the rash of suicide bombings around the world is a model for what may happen, it seems reasonable to believe that persons will be found who will be the "instruments of delivery." That is, these people will volunteer to become infected with the disease and to spread it wherever they are told to spread it, probably at the cost of their lives

Which brings us back to the 26 MMAs. A mere 26 "suicide terrorists" - only a handful more than were involved in the 9/11 attack - will be needed to introduce the disease into all of the MMAs in the United States! By walking around airport terminal buildings, shopping centers, commercial centers, sports stadiums and the like, the spread of the disease through major segments of the population of the United States is virtually assured. And, from the United States, the disease would spread rapidly and inexorably to the far corners of the Earth.

Perhaps the fact that the disease would spread to all corners of the globe will keep even the most dedicated terrorist from bringing the disease to the United States, since there is no way to protect the rest of the world from such a plague. In fact, the underdeveloped countries would likely have higher death rates than the United States.

For example, small pox is a highly infectious, easily transmitted disease. For all of recorded history, it was one of the scourges of the Earth. It was one of the many reasons the human population grew so slowly. Finally, effective medical technologies in the form of vaccines and associated techniques were developed. The scourge was eliminated. However, specimens of the disease were kept in laboratories and especially deadly strains of the disease were developed for biological warfare purposes.

9/11 demonstrated that horrible terrorist acts happen. While it may be monstrous to say so, it is not impossible that a terrorist induced plague may happen. It may not be small pox and it probably won't follow this scenario. For the sake of all who would die, let's hope it does not happen. Readers who are concerned can contact their physicians about vaccination.